How can I tell whether my confidence matches my intuition results?

Write down your confidence before you see the answer, then compare similarly confident guesses with their actual outcomes. This is a way to examine calibration: whether the level of certainty you report matches how often you are correct. Feeling certain and being accurate are different observations, and both belong in your practice record.

What should I record before answering?

Choose a task with a clear outcome and consistent rules. For each attempt, record your answer and a confidence estimate, such as 50%, 70%, or 90%. Keep these values in a notebook if the app does not ask for them. Do not adjust a confidence value after feedback.

Use a small number of confidence categories so you can review the record. If percentages feel awkward, begin with low, medium, and high confidence. Those labels can show a pattern, although they cannot be compared with an exact expected percentage until you define them.

What does a confidence comparison look like?

Imagine ten answers all labeled 70% confident. If seven are correct, the observed accuracy for that group is 7 divided by 10, or 70%. If four are correct, the observed accuracy is 40%. The second group suggests that confidence was higher than accuracy in that small set.

Ten attempts are too few to establish a stable personal ability. This example explains the arithmetic, not a threshold for proving intuition. Add further planned sessions and examine the whole record instead of selecting only the most impressive group.

Why does the number of choices matter?

In a task with four equally likely options and a genuinely random target, a random guess has a one-in-four chance of matching. A two-option task has a different baseline. Keep these tasks separate when reviewing your confidence, and do not assume an activity has equally likely options unless its rules establish that.

Subjectively scored drawings need another approach. Define specific scoring criteria before revealing the target, and avoid treating a loose resemblance as equivalent to an exact multiple-choice match.

How can I use this with Intuisity?

Choose one activity from the Intuisity practice hub, record confidence separately, and review completed activities in Daily Results. Keep the original notes even when they show uncertainty or a miss.

At the review point, ask two questions: “Was I more accurate when I felt more confident?” and “Was my stated confidence realistic?” Learning that certainty runs ahead of results is useful feedback. The goal is a more honest relationship with your impressions, not the highest confidence number.